cold comfort
Following on from my ‘Taiwan’ post t’other week several of you justifiably pointed out that a conflict far closer to these shores, the war in Ukraine, continues to rage and an agreeable solution to this should occupy our thoughts far more. Notwithstanding Tiny Hands’ craven attempts to garner a Nobel Peace Award by allowing Vladimir Putin, an indicted war criminal, to dictate the terms of any settlement, how exactly is the conflict going to be brought to an end, to a suitable-ish conclusion?
As much as many of us would wish to see Ukraine regain all of its territory, including Crimea, this is simply not going to happen. Driving the Russians from the east of the country is now physically, logistically, militarily impossible. Which leaves limited options:
– Putin falls in a coup and is replaced by a ‘dove’ as opposed to a ‘hawk’. Yeah, right.
– The conflict goes on and on for many more years in a relative stalemate.
– This status quo scenario is broken by massive US and/or Nato support and the ‘coalition of the willing’ aggressively takes the fight to Russia.
– Ukraine cedes the majority of the captured eastern territory and forgoes its claims over Crimea.
So, the first option is a non-starter as Putin’s grip on power remains as strong as ever. The second, a long-term status quo remains a distinct possibility if both countries are left to their own devices. We know from both his actions and words that Trump is not going to be part of the third option, and in reality neither should he be as this is closest option that could lead to another disastrous World War. Furthermore, contrary to their recent posturing, no single European leader is committed to providing the military and financial support necessary to achieve the desired outcome. I’ve heard to group being referred to as the ‘coalition of the unwilling!’
President Zelensky needs to be under no illusion wrt the limited amount of support available to his country and to the difficult decisions he and his people are going to have to take to end this war. The best they can hope for is some form of guarantee of safety for the remaining territory. And the fact that Putin is regarded as an international pariah and severe sanctions concerning the sale of Russian oil and gas are brought to bear. Cold comfort. On balance, and as unfair as it will be, the fourth of these options appears to be the best of a bad lot.
