chinese takeaway
With the Middle East and Central European conflicts remaining in full flight, the world’s attention has been somewhat removed from China’s designs on a relatively small island a little off its eastern shores, Taiwan. However, the country is seen by China as a breakaway province, which must, at all costs, be reunited with the motherland. Could this prove to be the next flash-point in current geopolitics?
Since the early 17th century, Taiwan has been in and out of both Chinese and Japanese rule on several occasions and it wasn’t until 1949’s civil war defeat of the post-imperial Republic of China by Mao Zedong’s communists that really brought it to the attention of Washington and the West. The defeated Kuomintang (KMT) army fled to Taiwan, stayed put and positioned itself, in a similar manner to both Korea and Vietnam, as a bulwark against Cold War communism.
For decades, the state was as harsh and authoritarian as its uneasy neighbour but gradually it industrialised (Taiwan remains the world leader in advanced microchip technology), its economy grew consistently at over 7% per year, became rich and, in the process, established itself as one of the first ‘Asian Tigers’. Most importantly, Taiwan began a process of democratisation and evolved into a two-party state, the long-established incumbent KMT and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). The first free elections took place in 1992 and the DPP finally displaced the KMT as the party of government in 2000.
Notwithstanding China’s assertion that there is only ‘One China’, Chairman Mao’s death in 1976 witnessed a slight thawing in their relations and both countries have sought to nurture a strong-ish economic relationship. Furthermore, the US acceded to the Chinese demand that Taiwan surrender its UN seat on the People’s Republic of China council, as a precondition for establishing formal diplomatic relations. Somewhat contradictory perhaps but what exactly is the West’s position on Taiwan today and might China invade?
The US follows an openly ‘strategically ambiguous’ policy where it supplies Taiwan with vast amounts of arms – $5bn worth in 2020 – but has never officially stated it would defend the country in the event of a Chinese invasion. Uh oh. US allies, including Britain, follow this lead and only fifteen somewhat small insignificant states, including Belize and the Vatican, recognise Taiwan. Tellingly, in the WTO and the Olympics, Taiwan participates as ‘Chinese Taipei’.
Since Xi Jinping became president, China’s rhetoric has become more strident and incursions into Taiwan’s air defence zones have become more frequent. Even with 300,000 active military personnel, a massive defence budget, state of the art US materiel and excellent natural defences, it’s clear China wants Taiwan: it’s a cause dear to Jinping and his people and both are known for their ability to play the long game and act generationally. However, with The Donald appearing to be siding with Putin against Ukraine and Netanyahu against Arab states, Xi may just see, and seize, his opportunity. Cautiously, watch this space…
