a tale of two parties
Well, what a whirlwind the last couple of weeks have proved to be. So much so, that we’ve all kinda forgotten that today’s the big day when David Davis’ leads the political equivalent of the charge of the light-brigade and kicks-off the long-awaited Brexit negotiations. Notwithstanding that to my mind, this is of far greater importance than either who won the last election or who’s going to win the next election, it’s illuminating to analyse Mrs May’s vital statistics in her cynical attempt to gain a stronger position within these contested & convoluted conversations:
- More than 32 million people, equating to almost 70% of the voting population, scribbled their X on the ballot paper. However, this means about 14 million disenfranchised or uniterested chose not to.
- Both major parties increased their share of the vote, specifically at the expense of the minor parties. UKIP’s share collapsed from 12.6% to less than 2%.
- The anti-Brexit parties polled only 12% in total.
- The Tories’ share was their highest since Margaret Thatcher polled in 1983 and Labour’s was their highest since Tony Blair’s 2001 victory.
- Many seats were won by a tiny majority: Kensington by 20 votes, North Perthshire by 21, Southampton Itchen 31 and Fife North East by just two.
- The Tories could have won an overall majority had they secured just 401 more votes across the eight seats they narrowly lost.
- Labour lost their third election on the bounce.
On the basis that both main parties campaigned on the ‘leave’ ticket the result affirms Brexit but, perhaps ironically, revokes the Prime Minister’s licence to carry it through. Her oft claimed ‘Brexit means Brexit’ is now as hollow as her ‘a bad deal is worse than no deal’ rhetoric. According to one of her own pet-quangos, the Centre for Economic Performance, leaving the EU without a deal would result in a 40% drop in exports (to the EU) over the next ten years and a 3% fall in GDP per capita. I, for one, am keen to see how the shored-up introspective worlds of the US or China are able to replace this level of business?
Clearly, by removing ourselves from both the single market and the customs union the deal was always going to be worse, the only question was to what degree. Hard Brexit, soft Brexit, open Brexit, no Brexit? Who knows, I certainly don’t. And I don’t think the all-powerful ten DUP and thirteen Scottish Conservative MPs know either but the silver lining from this electoral cloud is that an extreme Brexit with no deal is now highly unlikely.
May’s disastrous electoral gamble, together with her invisibility during the actual referendum campaign (where, lest we forget, the remainers Dave & Gideon thought she a Brexiter and Bumble & Gove considered her a remainer!) has not only cost her an overall Tory majority but ensured us all a chaotic, shambolic post-Brexit future. The economy is going to stagnate thanks to a mixture of uncertainty, trepidation and business flight. The neo-liberal approach of light government, wholesale privatisation, financial deregulation, personal & corporate tax-cuts and globalisation have got us this far on the similarly biased global stage but at the unrivalled cost of social inequality and wide-scale unrest.
But, hey, what do I know? I’m more than happy to be guided by those more able & knowledgeable and eagerly turn to our most prolific of ‘UK trade envoys’, none other than Prince Andrew. Yes, he was forced to resign from this role following a series of salacious revelations concerning his former dealings with a convicted billionaire paedophile, but that’s just nit-picking. With his finger remaining on the pulse of international business, Prince Backhander, is exceptionally upbeat and optimistic about the prospect of ‘Business Britain’, clearly stating that “many businesses had not even looked over the garden fence to the global market and, in my experience, businesses that look over the garden fence have gone: ‘Hmmm, the grass is not quite as dark and unforgiving as you might expect.’” Be afraid. Be very afraid.
I genuinely see little upside for our younger generations other than perhaps their enthused approach to political engagement may, down the line, present the opportunity of reversing the pickle we’ve all made of it.
And just to improve my mood isn’t improving, the worst thing is we ain’t seen the last of Mr Farage. You mark my word, the ex-Dulwich College, commodities stockbroker cum man of the people is undeniably planning some startling return to form and I suspect his excursions to the Land of Trump haven’t mellowed or softened his approach. With his MEP salary, which he admitted in 2009 had netted him in excess of £2m in salary, travel & expenses, about to be curtailed, he needs to action another even more lucrative source of personal & egotistical gain…
