vote with your fingers
Many of us who remember the dotcom boom and bust of the late nineties and early noughties have long expected the inevitable floatation and IPO of Facebook. But it may have to come sooner rather than later, perhaps even as early as October this year. It’s proposed valuation of $100Bn shows not only its phenomenal pace of growth but also how little the actual stock markets appear to have actually learned about over-valuing and over-hyping emerging (and unprofitable) businesses.
But the timing of the float may be pointedly significant in that, even though the business is adding members globally (687 million and counting), users are falling in the key markets where it could actually make money, including Britain, the US, Russia, Canada and much of the western world. Last month saw over 100,000 of us Brits kick the Facebook habit along with similar numbers in all these countries. The decline was even more marked in its homeland where no fewer than six million users decided they had better than check their pages and update their status!
The reasons for such desertion range from concerns over privacy and security to others wishing to ‘digitally declutter’ their lives. My personal belief is that growth has stalled in the western world as Facebook has very quickly reached its natural saturation point. The people who want to be on, are already on and the rest of us couldn’t give two figs about it. No amount of promotion or persuasion could entice me to join. Add to this the fact that large numbers of those ‘on’ are realising that the banal trivia, malicious gossip, inaccurate claims, grandiose boasting and moronic opinions are not worthy of either their time or input.
So should founder Mark Zuckerberg be worried? With most of Asia, the East and South America remaining relatively untapped and Facebook-free, probably not, but with his stated aim of one billion active users, I’d still get a move on with regards to that float, Zuck!
