thursday’s kingmakers
It’s hard to think of a more momentous by-election than the one taking place in Makerfield later this week. If the ex-Manchester mayor wins, it will trigger a Labour leadership contest that is likely to see the replacement of Keir Starmer as Prime Minister and it is no exaggeration that the future of the UK is in the hands of exactly 76,517 voters. But the question this raises in my tiny-mind is ‘are we becoming ungovernable?’
The average tenure of a British PM in the last decade is just two years – slightly more than that of a Premiership footie manager. By contrast, Italy, long associated with a constantly revolving political door, has had the same leader since 2022. Personally, I think we need the chaos of a change of leader midterm like I need the proverbial hole in the bonce and, whilst I would be relieved to see the trotting Toffee-supporter triumph against the fascism of Farage and racism of Restore’s Rupe, I do not believe the country would benefit one jot from any change at the top.
The by-election, largely being fought on immigration, takes place ironically when official data reveals one of the sharpest drops in net migration since records began: 171,000 in the year to December 2025, almost half the level of the previous year. The number of people claiming asylum is down 12% and the number living in hotels down by a third. Good news for most competing parties you’d think but when the narrative appears to be defined by no more than the most shocking thing the country has seen on its phone that day, then not so. It’s alarming how detached the British public’s perceptions have become from reality.
Notwithstanding our constant, often illogical demand for ‘change’, Labour has perhaps three years to show us that conventional government still works and MHO it’s still all about the economy, stupid. Like it or not there are only three options to balance the country’s books: spending cuts, tax rises and/or borrowing. That’s it. Nothing else. No magic wand. No secret sauce. No silver bullet.
First, spending cuts: the question here is, which spending? All departments, like all households are being painfully squeezed and both messages and proposed cuts have been continually botched. Second, tax rises: the current defence commitment of #18.5bn over four years amounts to 0.5p on the basic rate of income tax but if we are to believe the latest predictions we have to find an additional #12bn. Exactly where are those tax rises going to fall no-one seems to know. Ouch. Third, borrowing. Changing the fiscal rules again could allow for increased borrowing but we’re already paying a higher than every other similar sized economy so that’s hardly an option. And should an economy really ever borrow more than 100% of its GDP?
Any of these options would require both difficult decisions and trade-offs. A sensible, mature, cross-party conversation with the country wouldn’t be a bad place to start but I realise I’m asking too much as it would be a bitter pill for all to swallow. To-date, Sir Keir has proved unwilling to pursue any of them with vigour and, consequently, he’s suffered scorn and ridicule from all sides. Tough. This reticence may well have hastened his ultimate removal from No 10 but, rest assured, whoever replaces him, and the person thereafter, will face exactly the same pressures in the years ahead. Perpetual people-pleasing Andy Burnham may well be better-off if the social-media-gaff-prone plumber wins. Change indeed.
