we need to talk about nigel
Only eighteen short months ago, Reform UK was nothing more than a curiosity on the fringe of the political landscape. Now it’s the main event. Even with the recent high-profile Tory defections the party has just eight MPs but is still on course to either form or lead the next British government.
If the polls are to be believed, Nigel Farage will be our next Prime Minister. A YouGov poll suggested that Reform is set to be the largest party in a hung parliament, with 311 seats. The findings of a separate survey of over 20,000 people by More in Common were even starker. They predicted an outright win with a majority of 96, dealing a devastating blow to the two main parties.
What’s behind Reform’s extraordinary surge? Commentators have highlighted the collapse of the two party system and the wider rise of overt populism but these are mere symptoms of a much greater shift: the new digital information age. With so few MPs the party would’ve once been doomed to relative obscurity, but Reform has cleverly exploited social media and digital communications in order to punch above its weight and shape public debate. Some five million people follow Farage on the main platforms, more than Keir Starmer, Kemi Badenoch and Ed Davey combined. And just as importantly these followers are younger than the traditional voters of the other parties.
Unfortunately, this allows Naughty Nige the opportunity of claiming that he somehow speaks for the British people, that his views reflect the ‘commonsense’ opinions of the silent majority. It’s not true. They don’t. Farage is a the mouthpiece of a noisy, vociferous but often small minority.
He was the chief advocate of Brexit, a decision so calamitous that only 30% now believe it was the right move. Indeed, almost 60% want to rejoin the EU. Farage is on the wrong side of that number. He has long banged the drum for leaving the Churchill-championed European Convention on Human Rights but nationwide support for staying in the ECHR is close to 60% and is actually increasing. Farage is out of step with the public at large. Even on the subject he’s made his own, immigration, he’s outta tune: only 31% of Britons believe migrants have undermined our culture. So much for the self-styled man-of-the-people and the majority of us firmly believe in a multicultural, diverse, integrated and supportive society.
There’s no denying Farage’s campaigning skills and mastery of street-politik but shouldn’t we expect our Prime Minister to possess gravitas, compassion, integrity and show a healthy respect for truth and honesty? It wasn’t very prime ministerial of Nigel to suggest, on the basis of little to no evidence, that migrants are rounding up royal swans to eat. Nor did his refusal to criticise Trump’s ludicrous claims about London adopting sharia law, and paracetamol being linked to autism, inspire much confidence.
Reform is riding high in the polls today, but with three years until the next general election, I have every confidence that we will have second thoughts about putting such an evasive, slippery and untrustworthy charlatan into Downing Street.
